| OFFERINGS vs PURCHASES
In all of southern Berkshire County, Massachusetts, including all municipalities from Richmond, Lenox and Washington south to the Connecticut state line, the annual total number of arms length single family home purchases peaked in 2004 at 543 homes and has declined steadily to 315 homes in 2008. During the same time, the average number of homes offered for sale at any one time during the year has risen from 352 homes in 2003 to a peak of 620 homes in 2007 and has since fallen off to 575 in 2008.
If we think of the annual number of homes purchased as representing the capacity of the market to absorb homes in a given year, we can divide the number of homes offered for sale by the number of purchases and understand the result as the equivalent years of inventory of homes waiting to be bought during that one year. As purchases have declined and offerings have risen, the equivalent years of inventory on the market has risen steadily from two thirds of a year's supply in 2004 to a little short of two years supply in 2008. It is safe to say that some sellers are going to have to wait a long time for a buyer, while buyers will have a wide selection of homes to choose among for many months or years to come. This apparent over supply condition is not evenly distributed across all price ranges, and in a future posting we will examine where (at what price levels) there may be greater or lesser imbalances.
Posted by Shep Evans at Stockbridge, MA 1/15/2009
|
|
